There are lessons to be learned from almost every
experience, whether that experience is good or bad. War is not a good thing, but it is sometimes
necessary when hostile, rogue nations force it upon us. We must learn from our wars – and adapt. If we fail to do so, we place our freedom and
survival as a nation at risk.
Two current wars have provided us with important lessons. The Russian Federation is at war with
Ukraine, and the United States and Israel are in an undeclared war with the
Islamic Republic of Iran.
Normally, it is best not to scrutinize the conduct of a war
while our military personnel are actively engaged in fighting it. However, the midterm national election is two
months away, and the outcome of it will be significantly influenced by the
public perception of the war against Iran, and to a lesser extent the
Russia/Ukraine war. Therefore, this
discussion is necessary.
Our European allies have allowed their defense industries to
atrophy, while giving socialist domestic programs priority when allocating
resources. They cannot independently
conduct a large war after their stockpiles of weapons, ammunition, and other
war materials are depleted. The
Europeans have been buying what they need to supply Ukraine from the United
States.
Lesson: It is
becoming apparent that the US defense industry cannot simultaneously produce
enough war materiel to support multiple continuing wars (Ukraine and the Middle
East), our own domestic defense needs, drug interdiction in the Gulf of Mexico
and Eastern Pacific, and our peacekeeping endeavors in the Far East.
The conventional wisdom is that things like air travel, the
Internet, satellite communications, electronic money transfer, and the
globalization of corporations have “shrunk the world.” In some ways that is true, but it is not true
regarding America’s warmaking capability.
Our recent experience has shown that our military is not large enough to
meet the challenge of conducting combat and other operations in multiple
theaters simultaneously.
The most salient example is the overextension of the US
Navy. Careful observation reveals that
the problem began when then President Barack Obama unilaterally reduced the
number of our active ships. Subsequent
presidents have failed to return the navy to the strength level needed to
defend our interests, and those of our friends, worldwide.
When Barack Obama reduced the number of ships in the US
Navy, the idea seems to have been that our weapons were so technologically
advanced that our ships had become more powerful. Therefore, we didn’t need as many of
them. Unfortunately, a lot of our
elected representatives still think that way.
Problems do not go away simply because we ignore them. For instance, the Communist Chinese are
quickly achieving parity by growing the size of their navy, and their
technology is getting better all the time.
It’s a big world, and it is a long way from the Panama Canal
to the Strait of Bab-el-Mandeb, and from there to the Strait of Hormuz, and
from there to the Strait of Taiwan.
Despite the advanced weapons technology on our ships, they cannot
project power to the Yellow Sea from the Gulf of Mexico.
Our Navy is spread too thin.
Our ships are interdicting cartel drug smuggling in the waters the Gulf
and Western Pacific, or they are involved in combat operations and the blockade
in our war with Iran. We do not have
enough ships in the Western Pacific to defend our interests, and those of our
friends, by providing a deterrent to Communist Chinese aggression.
In the war with Iran, the need for sustained military
operations has made it necessary to leave our assets on station for extended
periods of time. For example, although
the US Navy is doing an excellent job, the strain on personnel and equipment is
taking a toll. Our military units cannot
be rotated out of theater for needed maintenance, reequipping, and
retraining. These things directly affect
their combat effectiveness over time.
Our friends are not obligated by treaty to support offensive
military actions unless we are directly attacked.
Our help providing for their defense in the past has been for our mutual
benefit. There is no moral or ethical
justification to expect them to assist with the war with Iran if they disagree
with it. Consequently, we may not be
able to rely on them to let us use our bases in their countries to carry out
missions if they do not like what we are doing.
Therefore, we have recently become even more reliant on military
operations from ships as the more dependable option.
Conditions on warships are difficult, even in the best of
times. Crews work long and physically
demanding shifts. The lower ranking
enlisted personnel are often required rotate the use of their bunks by shift
(“hot bunking”). The area they have for
storage of their personal items is extremely limited. Shower time is strictly limited. The food in the navy is pretty good, but
spoilage can be a problem in extremely hot climates. Our service people are tough, and they
voluntarily endure hardships on our behalf.
However, the heat above decks in the Middle East is oppressive.
Although combat effectiveness must necessarily be the first
concern, the impact of long deployments on our service peoples’ lives is an
important consideration. Our ongoing
struggle in the Middle East, since 11 September 2001, has disrupted family life. Our service members and their families
sacrifice daily for us.
These numbers are dated (2021); however, we can safely
estimate that, our navy has less than 300 active ships. The navy has indicated that we need at least
355 ships to perform its global mission.
In our research, we have seen that estimate go as high as 500
ships. Ships are expensive, and it takes
a long time to build one. It might take
until 2049 to get to 355 ships at a cost of $26.6 billion a year.
Unless federal spending patterns change, we will be
challenged to pay for entitlement social programs, national security spending,
servicing the national debt, and other federal programs. The Trump Administration has asked the US
Congress to approve $1.5 Trillion in additional defense spending. comes down to hard choices. We cannot have both “guns and butter” without
risking runaway inflation driven by excessive government spending.
Lesson: Resources
are finite. We need to learn that the US
Armed forces cannot be everywhere at once unless they get a lot bigger. If our national security calls for our armed
forces to perform multiple regional missions simultaneously, or fight a
full-scale world war, its current size is inadequate.
Our military service members are dedicated and loyal. President Trump may believe that limiting the
killing in the war with Iran is preferable to a more aggressive military
approach, and he must be given credit for it.
Although his negotiating strategy may be that he has “all the time in
the world” to resolve this matter in our favor, the people doing the fighting
do not.
Our conduct of the war against Iran impacts the world
economy, of which the United States’ economy is a part. We have destroyed much of Iran’s ability to
conduct offensive military operations.
All they have left is harassing fire from their missiles and drones. Desperate people continue to fight on by
using whatever they have left. In Iran’s
case, the only truly powerful means they have to resist is by disrupting the
world’s oil supply, so that is what they have been doing.
The “leading economic indicators” show that the US economy
is strong. Terms like the creation of new
jobs, the unemployment rate, attracting industry back to the United States, the
prime interest rate, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average and so forth are
poorly understood by many American voters.
What Mr. and Mrs. America know and understand is that the price of food and gasoline are so high that they are having trouble affording the basic
necessities of life.
Lesson: If we
ever want to win this fight, we must take away Iran’s ability to disrupt the
world economy and ours. People vote with
their wallets, and the economic crunch the average American voter is feeling is
going to kill our chances to retain a conservative voting majority both houses
of Congress. Without that, President Trump
will have big trouble on The Hill during the remaining term of his presidency. No 35-state whirlwind campaign tour will fix
it, and the Iranian Regime knows it.
In Lamp in a Corner I have repeatedly said that the
United States of America must never engage in a military conflict unless we are
willing to do whatever it takes to win by destroying the enemy’s
will and ability to resist. World War II
was the last war in which we did so. Our
subsequent military adventures have not produced satisfactory results. We have no right to ask the American people
to sacrifice our blood and treasure unless we win – period.
Lesson: Don’t
start anything you can’t finish … expeditiously. The US military is an awe-inspiring fighting
force. We must grow it enough to meet
the challenges we face around the world. There is no substitute for victory. We
will not see Iran permanently desist from its nuclear ambitions, state
sponsorship of terrorism, and attempts to control the Strait of Hormuz until
the IRGC and the radical clerics are removed from power.
When the Russian Federation invaded Ukraine, the invasion
failed. As always, there is more than
one reason for their failure. It is my
opinion that one of the reasons for the Russian failure may have been that the
generals who planned the invasion were either trying to curry favor with
Vladimir Putin by promising an easy victory, or they were just too afraid of
him to oppose him. It illustrates a flaw,
common to peacetime armies, that becomes apparent when they must go to
war.
Lesson: The leaders of a nation’s military must be
promoted to their positions based on their demonstrated abilities, rather than
on the correctness of their politics. We
must stop making our military a political football. When correct politics takes precedent over
demonstrated competence, we fall into the same trap that the Russians did in
Ukraine. We are all on the same team,
and we need to be pulling in the same direction.
“Those who do not
learn history are doomed to repeat it.”
George Santayana
You can always count
on Americans to do the right thing - after they've tried everything else.
Winston Churchill
Fellow Americans, we must elect a conservative voting majority to both the US Senate and House of Representatives. Please vote for conservative candidates on 3 November 2026.
