In a protracted military conflict,
the country with the most resources has the advantage. As our experience in Vietnam demonstrates,
however, success is not guaranteed to the side with more resources.
Since the Russian
Federation invaded Ukraine in 2022, the United States, the European Union, and
others have imposed severe economic sanctions.
The Russian economy has been weakened, but the impact of the sanctions
has been blunted due to Russia's increased trade with China and others, and assistance
with weapons from Iran and North Korea.
Consequently, Russia currently has the resources to continue their war
effort.
The Ukrainians are
dependent on aid from NATO, which includes aid from the United States. Without it, they will quickly lose their
ability to resist Russian aggression.
Further, their economy has been weakened by Russian attacks on their
infrastructure and interference by Russian naval forces, which has crippled
their ability to export agricultural products.
Presently, the Ukrainians are bravely continuing to fight.
Identifying in detail the
reasons for Ukraine’s current difficulty is beyond the scope of a Blog. However, to name a few:
Internal corruption has misappropriated
some of the funds and war material Ukraine needs for success. More importantly, the Ukrainians allowed themselves to believe that they could successfully
conduct a major offensive on multiple points of attack against entrenched, well-armed
enemy forces. Further, they did it
without the numerical superiority and tactical air superiority they needed to win. Rather than point the finger at Ukraine, though, external factors have had an equal, if not greater, impact.
Some NATO countries did
not immediately recognize the threat to Europe from Russian aggression, and
they were slow to provide help. For fear
of antagonizing the Russians, the Biden Administration slow-walked the
provision of the latest, most advanced weapons systems. In particular, advanced combat aircraft would
possibly have improved the chance that last year’s major offensive would be
successful; and reduced Ukrainian casualties. Currently, a power struggle in Washington has held up aid Ukraine desperately needs
to continue their struggle.
Even if our clueless
leaders in Washington eventually approve more aid, the Ukrainians have lost the
momentum needed remain on the overall offensive. With the loss of the offensive they will lose
the initiative. That is, they will have
to react rather than to act. Despite
localized successes, they have been forced to yield ground to the Russian
forces.
Any ground the Russians
gain is ground previously purchased with Ukrainian blood. Honestly, it is impossible to imagine how we
could have come up with a better way to make the Ukrainian people hate us, than
the way we have messed up the “help” we have given them so far.
In addition to all the
resource issues discussed, however, there remains one glaring problem that will
eventually hurt Ukraine’s chances of success more than Russia’s. Human resources are finite, and it has been a
bloody war.
Ukraine has lost an
estimated 30,000 soldiers killed. (Other estimates go as high as 70,000.)
Up to 15,000 are missing, most of whom are presumed dead.
Perhaps to destroy their willingness to
resist, Russia has committed war crimes against the Ukrainian people by purposely
waging war on civilians and civilian infrastructure. They have kidnapped Ukrainian children, sent
them to reeducation camps, and then placed them for adoption with Russian
families. They have weaponized sexual
assault, raping Ukrainian women in occupied areas. This is not new. They raped in Afghanistan. They raped in Eastern European countries
trapped behind the iron curtain. They
raped in Germany during World War II. They
have conducted roundups of Ukrainian civilians – then tortured and killed them. They have tried to freeze them to death by
destroying their ability to heat their homes.
“The confirmed
number of civilians killed since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022 is
more than 10,200, including 575 children, and the number of injured is over
19,300, the U.N. humanitarian office’s operations director, Edem Wosornu, told
the U.N. Security Council last Wednesday.”
Russia has lost an estimated 315,000 ground
troops.
The number of Russian naval personnel
killed was not readily available at this writing. They have lost up to 17 naval vessels, 11 of
which were patrol boats and landing craft. Yet, they just keep coming.
Historically, when the
Russians wage war they keep sending troops until they eventually wear their
enemies down. When they start to run
out, they mobilize more. Often they send
soldiers to the front who have had very little training and are poorly fed and equipped. They do not regard the lives of their soldiers
as highly as we regard ours. They are as
indifferent to taking casualties as the American armed forces are casualty
averse, and it is, therefore, difficult for Americans to understand that
information.
The Russians know that
they can keep taking casualties at the rate of 10:1 because they believe that
the Ukrainians will run out of war fighters before they do. History will prove them right unless we give
Ukraine the tools to prevail before they run out of people.
Russia is depending on their
war of aggression to make an example of Ukraine. The message they are sending is clear:
“Resistance
is futile.” Moreover, it is
suicidal. You can’t depend on the West. They will get tired of helping you and quit
as soon as it becomes inconvenient. Align
with us or you will get the same treatment we are giving Ukraine.
Will Russia’s neighbors be
willing to take the same kind of mauling the Russians have given Ukraine, if they believe we might abandon them?
I will vote for Donald
Trump if he is the Republican candidate for president in November. After the fiasco of Joe Biden’s presidency, I
would vote for Mickey Mouse rather than vote for any Democrat. I just wish President Trump would be more prudent
in making public statements. When will
he realize that the words of a former President of the United States, and the
words of the leading Republican candidate for president, have international significance? When he says that he would encourage Russia
to invade any NATO country whose defense spending falls short of its treaty
obligation, he puts us all at risk.
Citizens, please write,
call, and email your U.S. Senators and Congressmen. Urge them to provide aid to our friends who
are under attack or threat of attack – Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. Do it today … before it is too late.
UPDATE 26 February 2024: Haystack News aired a segment from Scripps today that showed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kiev announcing that Ukraine had suffered 31,000 military killed in action, during the Russia-Ukraine War. The segment pointed out that it was a departure from Ukrainian policy to discuss casualty figures, and that the apparent reason President Zelenski did it was to counter erroneous reports of much higher Ukrainian losses.
