A Couple of Thoughts

Axiom

To understand what is here, it is useful to know how it got here.

Corollary

If we know where we are going, it is easier to figure out how to get there.

Patience

Please be patient with the time it is taking for the recounts in the 2018 midterm election.  It takes a long time for the Democrats to falsify enough ballots to steal an election.

China

Historical Thumbnail

The Chinese communists took power in China by force in 1948-49.  Since then, relations between China and the United States (U.S.) have often been fraught with conflict.

When the United Nations forces under Gen. Douglas McArthur chased the North Koreans to the Yalu River during the Korean War, the Chinese attacked in overwhelming numbers.  McArthur was apparently convinced that the Chinese would not enter into the conflict, despite advice to the contrary from intelligence sources and orders from President Harry S. Truman to proceed with caution.  Pay attention class.  This will be on the test.

Later, the U.S. came close to war with China when the Chinese communists persisted in shelling the islands of Quemoy and Matsu, which were controlled by the Nationalists.  Relations then remained strained, with periods of increased nastiness.

When Richard M. Nixon became the U.S. President, tensions between the two countries were high, due to the anti-American elements in the Chinese Communist Party and the war in Viet Nam.  Some people in America thought war with China was inevitable.  Nixon went to China in the hope of “normalizing” relations.  Subsequent to his visit, the U.S. and China negotiated trade agreements that were favorable to the Chinese.  I believe that it was hoped that expanded trade would result in the development of a middle class in China, and that if they had something to lose the Chinese people would then be less likely to support a war with the U.S.

Parts of that plan worked pretty well.  China developed a middle class and a robust market-driven economy.  However, perhaps it worked a little too well.  China made a lot of money due to a favorable balance of trade with the U.S. and other nations.  There have, however, been periodic flareups in hostility, due to the underlying adversity between the two countries.  For instance, when President George W. Bush took office, the Chinese forced one of our surveillance aircraft down, and would not release it or the crew without an apology; embarrassing the new president and the U.S. as a whole.  Further, we “lost face” in Asia.

China has developed a large, modern military, largely with money from their growing economy.  They are now capable of delivering nuclear warheads on the continental United States.  In recent years, they have used their military and industrial strength to expand their influence in Asia and beyond.  Some people here feel threatened.  Certainly, China is a competitor with the national interests of the U.S. and its allies in the region.

China has laid claim to islands in the South China Sea and has expanded its territorial waters accordingly.  Some islands are claimed by other nations, including Viet Nam, the Philippines, and Japan.  The Chinese have constructed other islands.  There is evidence that military equipment has been deployed to the islands China says are theirs.

Some nations, including Liberia, Somalia, and Peru, claim a 200 nautical mile territorial sea around their coastline.  International law limits claims to no less than three nautical miles.  Most nations, including the United States and China, claim 12 nautical miles.  By lacing Taiwan and the islands in the South China Sea together, China is claiming jurisdiction over it.

www.nationmaster.com/country-info/stats/Geography/Maritime-claims/Territorial-sea

By Chinese law, their territorial jurisdiction includes the right to regulate foreign military and civilian shipping and aircraft.  At this time, most commercial shipping and air traffic may proceed freely, subject to international law and protocol.  However, that could turn on a dime.

By Chinese law, Foreign military shipping and aircraft may not navigate the South China Sea or the airspace above it without permission from Chinese government. Submarines may navigate with permission, but they must stay on the surface and fly the flag of their country.  China claims jurisdiction over the seabed and subsoil under the South China Sea.  Pay attention again.  That is important.

http://www.asianlii.org/cn/legis/cen/laws/lotprocottsatcz739/

Why the South China Sea?  It is a shallow sea that lends itself to fishing, a primary Chinese food source.  Also, there are huge deposits of oil that are within easy reach of today’s offshore drilling methods.  Many of the world’s major shipping routes follow a deep sea trench that runs through this otherwise shallow sea.

There’s the rub.  Many countries, including the U.S. do not recognize China’s claim to jurisdiction over the South China Sea.  British and American warships continue to navigate it.  There have been incidents involving Chinese and American warships.

The Unspoken Variables

During World War II (WW II), the United States was able to feed and equip its own military and the militaries of other countries from our own agricultural and industrial base.  Following WW II, America led in the development of an interrelated world economy.  Through favorable trade agreements, capitalism raised Europe and Japan from the ashes of war, and gradually improved the economies of third world countries.  The standard of living improved for Americans and for a lot of other peoples around the world.

An untended consequence was that American corporations relocated our manufacturing base to other countries to increase profitability.  Many of our best jobs went with them.  Greedy trade unions and incompetent government must share the blame with industry.

In an effort to “contain” communism and defeat terrorism, the U.S. maintained military forces overseas and engaged in financially ruinous “limited wars.”  At the same time, costly social welfare programs were created.  The result was deficit spending that resulted in what I think is an absolutely suicidal national debt.

What does that mean?  It means that the U.S. does not have the economic resources needed to fight a protracted regional war … let alone a larger one.  If we find ourselves fighting one, it will have to be short and violent … that is nuclear.  In the present military environment, that would mean a catastrophic loss of life for all peoples involved.  I fervently pray that it never happens.

The Chess Game

President Donald J. Trump is a business man.  He can plainly see that for our country to survive we must stop subsidizing the development of the economies of our trading partners.  The era of American largess must end.  Consequently, his administration has begun negotiating what they think are equitable trade agreements.  Some people, including the Chinese, are not too happy about that.  You can’t make an omelet without breaking a few eggs. 

In spite of the difficulty over trade, the Chinese helped us and the South Koreans to bring Kim Jong un to the negotiating table.  That’s a big step for China considering their continuing hatred of the Japanese over the atrocities committed by the Japanese in China during WW II.  I imagine it didn’t bother them much to watch the North Koreans lob missiles over Japan.  I believe that the Chinese yanked the “Dear Leader’s” chain because they sincerely believed America was about to go to war with North Korea … a war they might be pulled into.

However, the U.S. Navy continues to maintain a presence in the South China Sea.  The Chinese may have been hoping for a little quid pro quo.  Who knows?  They didn’t get it.  Their ships have harassed ours.  Consequently, President Trump put more tariffs on Chinese goods.  Now, Kim Jong un is making noises about resuming the testing of long range missiles.  Did the Chinese let him off his leash?  Are they running out of peaceful ways to raise the stakes?

China has shown themselves to be an unpredictable opponent.  We need to take a lesson from Gen. McArthur’s mistake.  Economics dictate that we must pursue our national interests, however, it is dangerous to back the Chinese into a corner that they can’t get out of without losing face.

The Numbers Game

The U.S. and China have roughly the same land mass.  However, the U.S has more arable land.  Roughly one person in seven lives in China (about 1.4 billion people).  By contrast, the population of the United States of America is estimated to be about 327,600,000.  Population estimates change by the minute.  America is a mass society, but not on the scale of China.  The civilian populations of both countries would be unprotected in the event of a nuclear war.

http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

Matching military strength one to one is fallacious.  One ship, tank, or airplane is not necessarily equal to another.

Generally, China has about twice as many active duty military personnel as the U.S, and they have about eight million reservists to our 811,000.  We spend over twice as much on our military than they do.  That can be attributed to a number of things, including pay, the costs of procurement, and maintaining overseas military bases.  Our supply lines are a lot longer than theirs, increasing the cost of troop transport and material.

The fact that we spend more does not automatically mean we have better stuff.  The Chinese have a new, technologically sophisticated navy and state of the art fighter aircraft.  They were growing their military and modernizing their equipment during the last decade, while we were decimating ours.

The differences in armaments reflect differences in strategic emphasis.  The military forces of both countries are roughly equal, except that we have far more nukes.  Our superiority in nuclear weapons seems justified when you consider that we have to worry about the Russians, Iranians, and North Koreans as well.

The U.S. military is overdependent on satellite and computer technology.  The Chinese are developing anti-satellite weapons systems.  It must also be remembered that our domestic, civilian society is run by computers and satellites.  Our commerce, transportation, utilities, health care and communications can be brought to a standstill by a few well placed EMP’s.  The result of that would be a breakdown of the social order.

Who would win a war between China and America?  Today, we would … if we do it quickly with nuclear weapons.  However, such a war would lay waste to both countries.

https://armedforces.eu/compare/country_China_vs_USA

Conclusion

The news reports in the U.S. are filled with the results of the midterm elections, and what they mean.  The Democrats and Republicans both can hardly wait to get to Washington, D.C. so that they can investigate each other.  There is talk of an effort to impeach President Trump.  Little attention is being given to the South China Sea, the Korean Peninsula, or the Middle East for that matter.  Things in Asia could get very bad very fast, and attention should be paid.

As was the case in the First World War, humankind’s ability to destroy each other has exceeded our ability to cope with it.  I’m 70 years old.  My soul is prepared for eternity with the Lord.  I’m homesick for heaven.  The cares of this world can no longer take away my joy.  Somebody with the power to do it should think about the rest of humanity.  We may soon run out of chances to get it right.