It would take a book to do
an in-depth analysis of the multiple variables that are contributing to a
pattern of Russia’s military aggression against its neighbors. The historical observations here are provided
for perspective, but what I am offering is
an actions/outcomes description. The
conclusions are opinion, but the opinions of informed persons are information
for decision making.
Historically Russia has
consistently pursued three goals. Russia
needs warm water ports (like Sevastopol in Crimea) for trade and military
purposes. They need ports that remain ice
free all year long. The French under
Napoleon and the Germans under Hitler invaded Russia from the West, and Russia
was nearly conquered. Russia wants a
buffer zone of client states between itself and Western Europe in which to stop
invasions before they reach the motherland.
Since the time of Peter the Great, the Russians have worked to develop
and modernize their industrial base.
Following the Soviet
acquisition of nuclear weapons in 1949, the Soviet Union rapidly developed into
a nuclear power. More recent Russian
national goals have included becoming a military and economic superpower that
has the ability to project power on a worldwide scale. To further those ends, they have also sought
to develop a network of friendly countries in Africa, the Middle East, Asia,
and South America as a market for their goods, a location for their military
bases, a source of raw materials, and as potential allies against the United
States and other NATO nations.
Beginning with the
destruction of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the Soviet Union gradually began to
fall apart, and by 1992 it ceased to exist.
During the Soviet Era, Russia controlled the other Soviet Socialist
Republics and the nations that made up the Warsaw Pact (Eastern Bloc). The fall of the Soviet Union was a major
setback for Russia. The countries she
had formerly dominated and oppressed declared independence.
Russia’s currency was
worthless. The transition from a
centrally directed economy to a market driven economy initially resulted in
economic chiaos.
Great numbers of Russians
took advantage of the relaxed controls on emigration and left the country. They often joined Russian speaking minority
populations in the Baltic States and former Soviet Socialist Republics.
Eventually, Russia began
to recover economically, with the help of aid and expertise provided by the United States
and other industrialized nations. After
the election of Vladimir Putin as prime minister in 1999, Russia has regained
its position as a major military power and a provider of raw materials for
European energy production.
Historically, the Russian
economy has been based on exporting raw materials and importing finished goods. Real prosperity has eluded them due to
economic mismanagement under the czars and communists, lack of diversified
industrial development, and the nature of their foreign trade. In the last 20 years, Mr. Putin and a
collection of industrialists known as “oligarchs” have brought prosperity to Russia’s
urban areas by exporting energy products, but the rural areas have remained
poor. Due to this prosperity, Mr. Putin has enjoyed high job approval and
personal popularity among the Russian people.
At first, Adolph Hitler
brought prosperity to the German people, and they loved him for it. Later, he enhanced his popularity with the
people by successfully dominating Austria and Czechoslovakia. He squandered the prosperity of his
people, and his political capital, by engaging in foreign military adventures
that ended in failure and Germany’s destruction. Will the same be true for Vladimir Putin?
As long as Joseph Stalin
was the dictator, everyone was afraid to dissent. After Stalin died in 1953, unrest among the Eastern
Bloc nations that were oppressed and controlled by the Soviet Union began to
surface. It began in Poland in 1956 when
a workers’ strike was suppressed by the Polish Army. In subsequent negotiations, however, the USSR
(Union of Soviet Socialist Republics) agreed to withdraw its troops from Poland.
Some feel this emboldened
the resistance movement in Hungary, and a rebellion began. It was crushed by the Soviet military, and
those rebels who were not killed in the fighting were executed. I was eight years old when television
newscasts of the fighting were aired in the United States. I will never forget how I was affected by the
scenes of Hungarians beating their fists on Russian tanks. Their only antitank weapons were Molotov cocktails,
but they still fought and died for freedom.
I was 20 years old in 1968
when the Soviet Army led troops from the other Warsaw Pact countries into
Czechoslovakia to suppress efforts to liberalize the communist government there
and achieve greater independence from the USSR.
Nobody came to Czechoslovakia’s defense.
It was my Junior year in
college, and I was taking a Military Science class taught by an Infantry Lt. Colonel. We asked him if he thought we would be going
to war to help the Czechs. He said didn’t
think so, and that he hoped we wouldn’t have to fight “Ivan” any time
soon. He thought we could win, but he
was aware of the price we would have to pay.
With Russian support and
encouragement, the provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia declared
independence from the Republic of Georgia in 2008. In response to shelling by separatist forces,
the Georgians attacked. Russia entered
the conflict and defeated the Georgians.
Although defeated militarily, the Republic of Georgia has continued to
seek closer ties with the West.
There was very little response from the nations of Western Europe, who
just called for a ceasefire. The Obama Administration
was in the process of trying to “reset” relations with Russia, after what they
thought was ham-handed and offensive treatment of them by George W. Bush. So they did nothing. It is generally believed that these mild
reactions caused the Russians to believe they could do what they pleased with
the former Soviet Socialist Republics in Eastern Europe. Some think it emboldened Vladimir Putin to start
trouble in the Donbas Region of Ukraine and to annex Crimea. I recall saying at the time that if we did
not help Georgia, Russia would continue its aggression elsewhere.
One way of looking at the war between Russia and Ukraine is by thinking
of it as one long and sporadic conflict that began in 2014 and continues to
this day. As in the case of Georgia, the
excuse for beginning hostilities was alleged mistreatment of Russian speaking
minorities in Crimea and Ukraine’s Donbas Region. Militias that were organized and trained by
Russia entered into conflict with the Ukrainian Army, which continued fairly
steadily until Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
It has been open warfare ever since.
In a 2014 election, “supervised” by Russian paramilitary operatives,
Crimean voters opted for Crimea to be annexed by Russia. The Crimean plebiscite is not regarded as a free and
fair election. Ukraine is attempting to
return Crimea to Ukrainian control as part of its war effort to expel the
Russian invaders.
In this Blog, and in emails and letters, I have repeatedly called upon
the US Government to provide Ukraine with greater assistance, short of
committing US troops to the conflict. I
urge every American to contact their US Senators and Representatives urging
them to give Ukraine everything they need to win.
Why? Because in the last 67 years,
Russia has repeatedly used military force to thwart their neighbors’ desire for
freedom, independence, economic ties with the European Union, and NATO membership. It is generally recognized that past
behavior may be predictive of future behavior. If Vladimir Putin and his supporters among
the “hardliners” and oligarchs in Russia are not stopped – if they are allowed
to succeed in Ukraine – it will only be a matter of time before they strike
somewhere else. Then the cost in lives
and treasure for ending their aggression will be far, far greater.
