Is This 2022 All Over Again?

Before the midterm national election in 2022, a lot of the conservative political opinion makers were predicting a landslide victory for the Republicans.  The opinion polls showed that likely voters believed that the Republicans would do a better job of dealing with what the voters agreed were the key issues in the election.  The polls showed that most voters felt dissatisfied with the direction the country was heading under the leadership of President Biden and the Democrats.  It was widely believed that the 2022 midterms would give the Republicans control of the US Senate and House of Representatives. 

It didn’t happen.  When the dust settled, the Democrats were in control of the Senate, and the Republicans held a slim majority in the House. 

Following the Trump/Biden debate in June, and the Republican convention in July, President Trump was favored to win the 2024 presidential election.  Leading Democrats persuaded President Biden to withdraw his candidacy, and at this writing, Vice President Harris is being confirmed as the Democratic candidate. 

With an unnerving similarity to the 2024 midterm election, the polls show that likely voters trust the Republicans to do a better job of managing key issues like border security, the economy, and inflation.  The Democrats win on the issue of abortion.*  Yet, the polls show Kamala Harris with a slight lead over President Trump. 

To be fair, at their core opinion polls are surveys, the accuracy of which may be influenced by things like pollster bias and whether the sample populations polled are truly representative of the entire population.  Further, to my knowledge these opinion survey polls are not replicated.  That is, the surveys are not readministered exactly, and the results are, therefore, not compared for reliability.  Consequently, poll results cannot be viewed with certainty as valid and reliable.  That is why the polls usually have a disclaimer – a margin of error of “plus or minus 3 percent.” 

Polls showing Donald Trump to be ahead of Kamala Harris, or vice versa, are usually within the margin of error.  Presently, we can view the race as a dead heat.  Those who support President Trump are almost fanatically loyal, and VP Harris is riding a wave of popularity ginned up by the Democratic political machine.  We can expect to see Ms. Harris get a brief, temporary “bump” in the polls when the Democratic convention is over.  

It is very concerning to most conservatives that Donald Trump is not well ahead.  The prospect of a Marxist/Socialist presidency led by Kamala Harris and Tim Walz bodes ill for the United States, and it is believed that it will continue, and accelerate, the decline of our nation begun by President Joe Biden and whoever has been calling the shots behind the scenes. 

There is a very real possibility that Vice President Harris will win in November.  An objective analysis of ability to solve the nation’s problems favors President Trump.  However, a lot of people will vote for VP Harris based on how they feel, rather than on a sober consideration of the facts.  Others will vote for the Democrats because they offer a “cradle to grave” system of government programs to take care of their needs. 

The Republicans offer a greater opportunity for higher rewards resulting from hard work and sound money management.  The Republican offer is the better one, but it does not appeal to the crowd that thinks they are owed a living and wants that living without working for it. 

Donald Trump is still not a politician.  For many voters, he is just not “likable.”  It shows in his style of campaigning.  His style sometimes alienates people unnecessarily.  So, it is up to us – for the good of the country – to do what we can to help him get elected.  Talk to your friends, relatives, and neighbors.  If you use social media, put it to work.  Explain why Mr. Trump must be elected.  Convince people to vote for Donald Trump, or against Kamala Harris as the case may be.  If you are able to work for the campaign, contact your local Republican party headquarters and volunteer. 

Remember, no president can bring about lasting change by themselves.  They need a majority in both houses of Congress as well.

 

 * The US Supreme Court has ruled that there is no provision in the constitution that gives the federal government the responsibility for regulating abortion, and that by virtue of the 10^th amendment, the responsibility belongs to the states.  Abortion should be an issue in state and local elections, but why is it being made an issue in the national election?  Could it be because it is the only issue the Democrats can win on?  Is it a way for the Democrats to assure themselves of the support of a majority of women voters?  The Republican candidates for federal government offices need to stop allowing themselves to be drawn into this argument.  They are being played – big time.