A Warning to Europe

K.T. McFarland is a Washington insider, former senatorial candidate, and an advisor to high-level public officials.  She has received awards from the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), the Department of Defense, and the American Conservative Union (ACU).  She is a frequent commentator on Fox News, and I often find myself agreeing with her views. 

During an interview by Martha MacCallum last night, K.T. McFarland made comments to the effect that the sanctions that are currently being imposed by the Biden Administration on the Russian Federation for its invasion of Ukraine were ineffectual.  She indicated that the only sanction that would really harm Russia, and President Vladimir Putin, was removal of Russia from the S.W.I.F.T. banking system.  MacCallum interjected that our European allies are opposed to that because it would severely limit their ability to buy oil and natural gas from Russia.  MacCallum reminded that it would cripple the economies of Europe to kick Russia out of SWIFT. 

Agreed on all counts, but what then?  We can sit back and hope.  Hope that Putin will lose the support of his oligarch power base.  Hope that an anti-war movement will develop among the Russian people that is too strong to be suppressed.  Hope that by some miracle the Ukrainians will be able to stop the Russian war machine.  Clearly, this matter will not be resolved by hope alone. 

It will also not be resolved by handwringing, dithering indecision.  Most valuable things come at a very dear price, and ‘freedom isn’t free.’  To make a real impact on the Russian economy, and thus provide a compelling reason for them to bring the aggression against Ukraine to a halt, the peoples of the United States and Europe will have to pay a high price … but not as high as the Ukrainians are paying.  To that end, there are things we must take into consideration and act upon. 

A state or war exists in Ukraine.  So far, it is confined to Ukraine, but it must not be allowed to spread.  I submit that, although NATO, the EU, and other free societies are not involved militarily, they have chosen to involve themselves economically by imposing economic sanctions on Russia.  Sanctions are a weapon.  They are not combat lethal, but they often have lethal consequences.  They heavily impact the most vulnerable members of society. 

Sanctions take a long time to produce results.  Unless they are properly applied, they may not be sufficient to achieve the intended goals.  Often, all they do is prolong the suffering of the innocent. 

Military forces should never be committed piecemeal, and neither should sanctions.  If they are applied gradually, incrementally, and in proportion to the offense, they only give the opponent time to regroup, adjust, and adapt.  With all due respect to President Biden and the leaders of our European allies, the way that things are being done now will only earn the contempt of a man like Vladimir Putin.

The United States, the European Union, and our partners around the world must understand that if the aggression in Ukraine is not stopped now it will not be stopped at all.  It will spread.  Every conceivable sanction must be applied now, and all at once.  If we cannot make a united effort to immediately shut down Russia’s economy, it will only encourage Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea to commit further aggression, and somewhere we will all be dragged into a shooting war. 

Vladimir Putin has been clear that he does not want NATO forces stationed on Russia’s borders or conducting war games there.  Further, as the people of Ukraine show themselves to be willing to fight for their independence, Russia will grow increasingly frustrated with NATO for supplying them with the means to resist. 

Russian air superiority in the area will prevent the United States and others from resupplying the Ukrainian war effort by air.  Do you think Putin will tolerate resupplying an ongoing insurgency overland through Poland, Hungary, or Romania?  Might that not give him an excuse to invade them?  Be reminded that NATO is obligated to use its military forces to defend them.  Putin wants the Baltic States, and he wants to make client nations out of the Eastern European countries that are contiguous to the Russian Federation.  If he is not stopped, he will eventually move to accomplish those goals ... when he thinks the time is right.  

There are those who think we can fight a ‘limited’ war with Russia or China.  I disagree.  A limited war would not remain limited.  Once one side or the other starts to lose, they will resort to chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons.  If that happens, the civilized, organized societies the world enjoys today are finished. 

It can happen easier than you think.  My own military experience in October of 1973 gives me to speculate that our nuclear forces are on a heightened state of readiness, right now.  They can be employed the moment they get the command.

I am not asking the US government to act without regard for our European allies.  Anything we do must have their full support.  The days when the United States could act unilaterally, (could go it alone), are over.  The reverse of that coin is that our European allies, and other aligned contributors, must shoulder a greater share of the burden. 

Be warned, European friends.  If Vladimir Putin is allowed to pursue his delusional dreams in Ukraine, he will take the fight to your doorstep next.  Employ every sanction you can now, while you still have time.