If/Then

If “B” always follows “A” when written in in alphabetical order, then does “A” cause “B?”  If 7 always follows 6 when written in numerical order, then is 7 the result of 6?  If winter in Alaska is unbearably cold, then will winter in Alaska be agonizingly cold next year? Well … probably. 

The “if/then” logical fallacy can cloud our thinking.  If another country kills Americans, then we must retaliate.  If we hit them back hard, then they will be less likely to do it again.  Are we so sure about that?  What other options do we have?  Would they be more effective? 

Three American soldiers have been killed by terrorist militias in Jordan.  It is believed that the group responsible was an Iranian proxy.  President Biden is promising to respond, “at a time and place of our own choosing.” 

If our military has been under drone and missile attack in the Middle East for a long time, as our Secretary of Defense said today, then wouldn’t it have been prudent for the brass at the Pentagon to have “gamed out” various alternatives in the event that some of our troops were killed?  Well, wouldn’t it?  If they didn’t, then wouldn’t that constitute negligence, or even stupidity?  So, why is it taking so long? 

If we strike targets in the Iranian homeland, then what will they do?  What are we planning to do after they do it?  Remember the Scud missile attacks on Israel by Sadam Hussein?  If we hit Iran hard, what happens to Israel?  What happens to our naval vessels in the Red Sea?  Do our retaliatory strikes against Iran include preemptive strikes to destroy their ability to strike back? 

If we conduct an overwhelming response against those responsible for killing our soldiers, including Iran, then do we have the will to deal with the consequences?  What if it takes years of protracted conflict? 

Much is being made of the strikes on Iranian assets ordered by President Reagan in 1988 after an American warship was attacked in the Persian Gulf.  If the Iranians backed down before, then it is certain they will back down now - right?  Since 1988, Iran has become aligned with Communist China and the Russian Federation.  They have developed a formidable arsenal of air defense weapons.  They now have the ability to employ medium range ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, and they are on the cusp of acquiring those nuclear weapons.  The Iran of today is not the Iran we slapped around in 1988. 

It seems to be self-evident that Iran will continue to be an outlaw state until the ruling theocracy is removed from power.  Their actions are making that inevitable.  They certainly appear to be challenging us to do it. 

So, here is the question.  If we put our military, and possibly our civilian population, in harm’s way, then will we be willing to do whatever it takes to win.  If we aren’t, then we shouldn’t waste our treasure and the lives of our service people.

One last thought … whether we want it or not, if we don’t take the Ayatollahs out “at a time and place of our own choosing” now, then there is a high degree of likelihood we will be fighting them in our own backyard tomorrow.  We need to get this done, and we need a leader who is able to do it.