In a protracted military conflict, the country with the most resources has the advantage. As our experience in Vietnam demonstrates, however, success is not guaranteed to the side with more resources.
Since the Russian Federation invaded Ukraine in 2022, the United States, the European Union, and others have imposed severe economic sanctions. The Russian economy has been weakened, but the impact of the sanctions has been blunted due to Russia's increased trade with China and others, and assistance with weapons from Iran and North Korea. Consequently, Russia currently has the resources to continue their war effort.
The Ukrainians are dependent on aid from NATO, which includes aid from the United States. Without it, they will quickly lose their ability to resist Russian aggression. Further, their economy has been weakened by Russian attacks on their infrastructure and interference by Russian naval forces, which has crippled their ability to export agricultural products. Presently, the Ukrainians are bravely continuing to fight.
Identifying in detail the reasons for Ukraine’s current difficulty is beyond the scope of a Blog. However, to name a few:
Internal corruption has misappropriated some of the funds and war material Ukraine needs for success. More importantly, the Ukrainians allowed themselves to believe that they could successfully conduct a major offensive on multiple points of attack against entrenched, well-armed enemy forces. Further, they did it without the numerical superiority and tactical air superiority they needed to win. Rather than point the finger at Ukraine, though, external factors have had an equal, if not greater, impact.
Some NATO countries did not immediately recognize the threat to Europe from Russian aggression, and they were slow to provide help. For fear of antagonizing the Russians, the Biden Administration slow-walked the provision of the latest, most advanced weapons systems. In particular, advanced combat aircraft would possibly have improved the chance that last year’s major offensive would be successful; and reduced Ukrainian casualties. Currently, a power struggle in Washington has held up aid Ukraine desperately needs to continue their struggle.
Even if our clueless leaders in Washington eventually approve more aid, the Ukrainians have lost the momentum needed remain on the overall offensive. With the loss of the offensive they will lose the initiative. That is, they will have to react rather than to act. Despite localized successes, they have been forced to yield ground to the Russian forces.
Any ground the Russians gain is ground previously purchased with Ukrainian blood. Honestly, it is impossible to imagine how we could have come up with a better way to make the Ukrainian people hate us, than the way we have messed up the “help” we have given them so far.
In addition to all the resource issues discussed, however, there remains one glaring problem that will eventually hurt Ukraine’s chances of success more than Russia’s. Human resources are finite, and it has been a bloody war.
Ukraine has lost an
estimated 30,000 soldiers killed. (Other estimates go as high as 70,000.)
Up to 15,000 are missing, most of whom are presumed dead. [1]
Perhaps to destroy their willingness to resist, Russia has committed war crimes against the Ukrainian people by purposely waging war on civilians and civilian infrastructure. They have kidnapped Ukrainian children, sent them to reeducation camps, and then placed them for adoption with Russian families. They have weaponized sexual assault, raping Ukrainian women in occupied areas. This is not new. They raped in Afghanistan. They raped in Eastern European countries trapped behind the iron curtain. They raped in Germany during World War II. They have conducted roundups of Ukrainian civilians – then tortured and killed them. They have tried to freeze them to death by destroying their ability to heat their homes.
“The confirmed number of civilians killed since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022 is more than 10,200, including 575 children, and the number of injured is over 19,300, the U.N. humanitarian office’s operations director, Edem Wosornu, told the U.N. Security Council last Wednesday.” [2]
Russia has lost an estimated 315,000 ground troops. [3] The number of Russian naval personnel killed was not readily available at this writing. They have lost up to 17 naval vessels, 11 of which were patrol boats and landing craft. [4] Yet, they just keep coming.
Historically, when the Russians wage war they keep sending troops until they eventually wear their enemies down. When they start to run out, they mobilize more. Often they send soldiers to the front who have had very little training and are poorly fed and equipped. They do not regard the lives of their soldiers as highly as we regard ours. They are as indifferent to taking casualties as the American armed forces are casualty averse, and it is, therefore, difficult for Americans to understand that information.
The Russians know that they can keep taking casualties at the rate of 10:1 because they believe that the Ukrainians will run out of war fighters before they do. History will prove them right unless we give Ukraine the tools to prevail before they run out of people.
Russia is depending on their war of aggression to make an example of Ukraine. The message they are sending is clear:
“Resistance is futile.” Moreover, it is suicidal. You can’t depend on the West. They will get tired of helping you and quit as soon as it becomes inconvenient. Align with us or you will get the same treatment we are giving Ukraine.
Will Russia’s neighbors be willing to take the same kind of mauling the Russians have given Ukraine, if they believe we might abandon them?
I will vote for Donald Trump if he is the Republican candidate for president in November. After the fiasco of Joe Biden’s presidency, I would vote for Mickey Mouse rather than vote for any Democrat. I just wish President Trump would be more prudent in making public statements. When will he realize that the words of a former President of the United States, and the words of the leading Republican candidate for president, have international significance? When he says that he would encourage Russia to invade any NATO country whose defense spending falls short of its treaty obligation, he puts us all at risk.
Citizens, please write, call, and email your U.S. Senators and Congressmen. Urge them to provide aid to our friends who are under attack or threat of attack – Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. Do it today … before it is too late.
UPDATE 26 February 2024: Haystack News aired a segment from Scripps today that showed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kiev announcing that Ukraine had suffered 31,000 military killed in action, during the Russia-Ukraine War. The segment pointed out that it was a departure from Ukrainian policy to discuss casualty figures, and that the apparent reason President Zelenski did it was to counter erroneous reports of much higher Ukrainian losses.
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