If “B” always follows “A”
when written in in alphabetical order, then does “A” cause “B?” If 7 always follows 6 when written in
numerical order, then is 7 the result of 6?
If winter in Alaska is unbearably cold, then will winter in Alaska be
agonizingly cold next year? Well … probably.
The “if/then” logical
fallacy can cloud our thinking. If another
country kills Americans, then we must retaliate. If we hit them back hard, then they will be
less likely to do it again. Are we so
sure about that? What other options do
we have? Would they be more effective?
Three American soldiers have
been killed by terrorist militias in Jordan.
It is believed that the group responsible was an Iranian proxy. President Biden is promising to respond, “at
a time and place of our own choosing.”
If our military has been
under drone and missile attack in the Middle East for a long time, as our
Secretary of Defense said today, then wouldn’t it have been prudent for the
brass at the Pentagon to have “gamed out” various alternatives in the event
that some of our troops were killed? Well, wouldn’t it? If they didn’t,
then wouldn’t that constitute negligence, or even stupidity? So, why is it taking so long?
If we strike targets in
the Iranian homeland, then what will they do?
What are we planning to do after they do it? Remember the Scud missile attacks on Israel
by Sadam Hussein? If we hit Iran hard,
what happens to Israel? What happens to
our naval vessels in the Red Sea? Do our
retaliatory strikes against Iran include preemptive strikes to destroy their
ability to strike back?
If we conduct an overwhelming
response against those responsible for killing our soldiers, including Iran, then
do we have the will to deal with the consequences? What if it takes years of protracted conflict?
Much is being made of the
strikes on Iranian assets ordered by President Reagan in 1988 after an American
warship was attacked in the Persian Gulf.
If the Iranians backed down before, then it is certain they will back down
now - right? Since 1988, Iran has become
aligned with Communist China and the Russian Federation. They have developed a formidable arsenal of
air defense weapons. They now have the
ability to employ medium range ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear
weapons, and they are on the cusp of acquiring those nuclear weapons. The Iran of today is not the Iran we slapped
around in 1988.
It seems to be
self-evident that Iran will continue to be an outlaw state until the ruling
theocracy is removed from power. Their
actions are making that inevitable. They
certainly appear to be challenging us to do it.
So, here is the
question. If we put our military, and
possibly our civilian population, in harm’s way, then will we be willing to do whatever
it takes to win. If we aren’t,
then we shouldn’t waste our treasure and the lives of our service people.
One last thought … whether
we want it or not, if we don’t take the Ayatollahs out “at a time and place of
our own choosing” now, then there is a high degree of likelihood we will be
fighting them in our own backyard tomorrow.
We need to get this done, and we need a leader who is able to do it.
